"You Never Know" is Not a Strategy

There’s a phrase I hear far too often in the film industry: “You never know.”

It usually comes up when I mention that I don’t want to submit my film to a particular festival, pitch a distributor I know isn’t the right fit, or send a press release to a major newspaper that clearly won’t cover my kind of work. And the pushback is always the same: “But you never know!”

Let’s be real, just because something might happen doesn’t make it a good strategy. Sure, there's always a microscopic chance that someone influential will see your film or that a major outlet will run a story. But “might” is not a plan. “Hope” is not a business model.

This isn’t about being pessimistic, it’s about being strategic. Let me break this down in filmmaking terms (though it applies to any creative field).

1. The Opportunity Cost of “You Never Know”

Every time you chase a long-shot opportunity, you’re taking time and energy away from something with a higher likelihood of success. Would you rather send 200 random press emails and get zero replies, or send 20 thoughtful, targeted emails and receive 5 solid responses?

Your time, energy, and budget are limited. Use them intentionally. Strategic planning almost always yields a better return than blind optimism.

2. Press Outreach: Be Selective

Sending out press releases is a smart move, but only if you send them to the right places.

Sure, technically someone at The Financial Times could be interested in your indie horror film… but what are the odds? Even if you’re copy-pasting, it takes time to find email addresses, customize messages, and hit send. Multiply that by dozens or hundreds, and you’ve just exhausted yourself, and possibly lost hope after hearing nothing back.

Instead, research outlets and journalists who actually cover your kind of film. Look at what they've written about before. Pitch with precision, not a shotgun approach. Your reply rate, and morale, will thank you.

3. Film Festivals: Choose Wisely

Submitting to festivals? Great! But don’t fall into the “submit everywhere” trap.

Even with tools like FilmFreeway making submissions fast and easy, the cost still adds up, both financially and emotionally. Rejection stings a lot more when it comes from a festival that was never a fit in the first place.

Before submitting, explore the festival’s website. Read reviews. Most importantly, watch past selections. If their lineup doesn’t resemble your work, it's likely a mismatch. Be discerning, and your acceptance rate will go up.

4. Attending Festivals: Quality Over Quantity

Getting selected is exciting, but should you attend every festival?

Not all events are created equal. Some festivals offer incredible networking and exposure. Others are little more than an expensive weekend trip. Research who attends, what kind of connections you can make, and whether it aligns with your career goals.

Your time is valuable. Go where it counts.

5. Networking with Purpose

Reaching out to industry professionals is essential, but be realistic.

Instead of cold-emailing top-tier producers with hundreds of unread messages in their inbox, focus on building relationships with peers or people one or two steps ahead of you. These are the folks you can grow with, collaborate with, and support over time.

Strategic networking leads to real opportunities. Random cold calls usually don’t.

6. The Emotional Cost of Random Rejections

Let’s not underestimate this one.

Every rejection, even when it's expected, takes a small toll. If you constantly aim at the wrong targets and hear "no" over and over again, it can chip away at your confidence. You start to doubt your work, even when the issue isn't your talent, it's your strategy.

Being smart about where you submit, who you pitch, and what you aim for helps protect your mental and emotional well-being. That’s just as important as any career win.

Final Thoughts

In filmmaking, as in any creative pursuit, your time, money, and energy are your most precious resources. Throwing everything at the wall and hoping something sticks is not a sustainable approach.

Instead of relying on “You never know,” try leaning into:

“I did the research, and I know this is the right move.”

That’s how you create momentum. That’s how you build a career.